Kozhikode: Jaseel Sabab, an electrical engineer based in Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, was planning to return to Kerala with his family in the last week of March. He wanted to cast his vote in the upcoming Assembly election. “But in the current situation in the Gulf, it doesn’t seem possible,” said Jaseel Sabab. “Missile attacks continue, loud explosions echo every morning, and with soaring ticket fares and mass flight cancellations, our journey has become uncertain,” he added.

Jaseel, a native of Kallachi in Nadapuram constituency, where close electoral contests are expected, had planned a short election-time visit along with his wife, three-year-old daughter and two brothers. His plans now stand disrupted as tensions triggered by the Iran–Israel conflict have severely affected air travel across the Gulf, raising concerns over the participation of overseas voters in the upcoming Kerala Assembly elections.

With more than 2.34 lakh registered overseas voters in the state, expatriate participation has traditionally played a decisive role in several closely fought constituencies. However, this election season, hopes of thousands of Non-Resident Keralites (NRKs) returning home to vote on April 9 have been clouded by widespread flight disruptions, soaring airfares and uncertainty in the region.

According to Election Commission data, Kerala has 2,34,049 overseas voters, including 1,98,047 men and 35,994 women. Notably, over 1.32 lakh of them are from the Malabar districts, from Kasaragod to Malappuram—regions where several constituencies are witnessing tight contests. Kozhikode has the highest number of overseas voters at 58,848, followed by Kannur with 55,810 and Malappuram with 40,860.

Limited flight services and steep fare hikes have also dimmed prospects of chartered “vote flights,” a practice widely used in previous elections. Thousands of flights in the GCC sector have been affected, disrupting connectivity from major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh.

Political parties, which had actively campaigned to enrol overseas voters under the Special Intensive Revision programme, are now increasingly concerned. Organisations like the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC), the overseas wing of the Indian Union Muslim League, have historically facilitated travel for expatriate voters. During the last Lok Sabha elections, multiple chartered flights were arranged from Saudi Arabia alone.

The current crisis has altered the scenario. “Many expatriates were eager to vote after closely following political developments in Kerala. But with the situation worsening in the Middle East, most have dropped their plans,” said Fajaru Sadique, a KMCC worker based in Doha. He noted that airfares, which typically range between ₹15,000 and ₹20,000, have now surged beyond ₹60,000, with limited availability of flights. “Even alternative routes, such as travelling via Saudi Arabia, are proving too expensive,” he said.

Haneefa Munniyur of the Pravasi League said the conflict has disrupted carefully planned travel schedules. “Many Malayalis had planned their visit combining Eid and the elections. Now, only those who can afford high fares or chartered flights may be able to travel, while many others will be forced to stay back,” he said.

Travel operators also confirm the scale of disruption. Lijo Paul of Tour Fly India said over 90% of flights in the GCC sector have been rescheduled or cancelled. “Fares to Dubai from Kerala, which used to be ₹15,000–₹20,000, have now shot up to around ₹70,000. Similar hike is seen across all GCC routes,” he said.

The impact could be significant in constituencies with a high concentration of expatriate voters. Kuttiady leads with over 16,206 overseas voters, followed by Nadapuram with more than 12,500. In several of these seats, victory margins in previous elections were narrow, making the absence of NRK voters potentially decisive. Notably, in Kuttyadi, UDF candidate was defeated by a thin margin of 333 votes in previous assembly election. In Nadapuram, UDF candidate was defeated for a margin of 4035 votes in last assembly poll.

Arjun Padmanabhan, a Dubai-based supervisor, said many like him are reconsidering their plans. “I had planned to return on April 1 to vote in Kondotty and attend temple festivals. My leave was approved, but now I am unsure if I can travel,” he said.

In previous elections, candidates often visited Gulf countries to directly engage with expatriate voters. Such outreach is unlikely this time due to the ongoing crisis. With no immediate end to the conflict in sight, political parties are now grappling with the possibility that a crucial segment of their voter base may remain absent on polling day.