Earlier, I posed the question of whether Gulf carriers will ever make a full recovery from the current conflict in the Middle East, and if so, how long it will take. I’ve also addressed the topic of what to do if you have a ticket booked on a Gulf carrier, given all the uncertainty. In this post I’d like to pose another question, which reflects a dilemma I’m currently facing.

I can’t decide whether to book the “perfect” itinerary, or…

Later this month, I’m supposed to take a trip to Thailand, which was planned well before the current conflict in the Middle East. I don’t actually have flights booked yet, which is the norm for me, since I often only lock them in at the last minute, when good award options open up.

Given that Miami has no nonstop flights to North or Southeast Asia, I had been expecting that my best opportunity to redeem miles for a comfortable ride would be to book a Gulf carrier at the last minute. Suffice it to say that the current conflict complicates that.

That brings me to my question — I see that Qatar Airways has opened business class award space on an ideal one-stop routing, at the lowest possible award cost, and with a perfect layover. It’s for travel in the coming weeks, so what do I do?

• Do I not even consider this option, given the massive amount of uncertainty, and keep looking for another routing (which will ultimately be less convenient)?
• Do I book it, and assume that if nothing materially worsens before travel time, I should take this routing?
• Do I just book it and hope the situation improves, and worst case scenario I can cancel for a small fee?

The argument for and against traveling through the Gulf

I’m not in any way meaning to diminish any potential risks or safety concerns, so let me share both sides of this, as I see it.

The argument for traveling through the Gulf right now is easy — flights are largely wide open, award availability is good, etc. Gulf carriers carry a massive amount of sixth freedom traffic (between other countries), and when those options disappear overnight, availability via other regions is suddenly looking much tighter.

Furthermore, I’ve written in the past about why I’m not terribly concerned about the risks of commercial aviation. I don’t mean to be dismissive, and perhaps this is an area where I should be more concerned. But my general approach is that any time we get into a car, we’re taking a bigger risk than any time we step onto a plane.

So if I’m trying to compare what amounts to very small amounts of risk (in absolute terms), I tend to think I’m not really capable of analyzing that logically, so I just avoid doing so altogether.

The argument against traveling through the Gulf is also obvious — there’s an increased safety risk, plus there’s a chance of getting stuck somewhere, if the situation escalates. It’s also important to emphasize that Gulf states aren’t necessarily the best narrators in terms of accurately reporting on the situation within their countries, and while I’m not saying that means the risk is huge, the potential lack of accurate information can make some people uneasy.

The main reason I’d probably avoid flying through the Gulf is simply because I imagine that some family members may be concerned if they hear I’m traveling through the region, and I care about how they feel, and don’t want to create unnecessary stress.

I’ve also seen some people point out that some insurance policies don’t apply if you’re somewhere during a conflict, so everyone can decide for themselves to what extent that matters.

Bottom line

It’s a terrible time for the major Gulf carriers, as they’re finding themselves in a situation that feels very similar to the early days of the pandemic.

It’s understandable why most people would want to avoid these airlines for now — it’s a combination of safety concerns and the potential for irregular operations. However, I’m curious to hear what comfort level those in the OMAAT community have with flying through Gulf hubs.

Where do you stand on the concept of flying through a Gulf hub right now? Does your answer depend on whether it’s Dubai or Doha? If you wouldn’t feel comfortable with it, what would it take for you to be open to it again?