Could Your Summer Flight Be Cancelled? Here’s What To Know As Jet Fuel Prices Surge

Topline

With the Strait of Hormuz closed for nearly 10 weeks, much of the world is running out of jet fuel and summer vacation plans could be disrupted, energy experts told Forbes.

A Malaysia Airlines jet takes off over fuel storage tanks at Sydney Airport in Australia.

getty

Key Facts

“It’s not going to be a short-term issue, because it can’t be easily solved,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, the energy data and analytics platform, told Forbes, having likened the jet fuel shortage to a “slow-motion car crash.”

“We’re going to be in crisis mode,” John Gradek, who teaches aviation risk management at McGill University, told Forbes, noting “the industry has never seen this before, where the actual supply of the product needed to support aviation, that pipeline, is drying up.”

Europe’s jet fuel inventories are expected to dip below the International Energy Agency’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June, according to a recent Goldman Sachs research note to investors.

In mid-April, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe had “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” and poorer countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America would feel the impact even sooner.

In 2026, the world’s airlines will experience “a significant slowing of traffic and capacity” and “the impact will clearly be both deeper and more prolonged the longer the conflict continues and the longer jet fuel prices remain at their current levels,” Cirium warned in April.

Crucial Quote

“If you’re not a very resilient traveler, planning to go to one of these overseas destinations, you may want to rethink it, especially if the [Strait of Hormuz] blockade continues through Memorial Day,” Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, told Forbes, noting he plans to visit Europe this summer. “I’m going to be nervous myself traveling to Italy in August,” he said. “If the Strait remains closed for another couple weeks, it’s really not going to be good.”

The Jet Fuel Shortage Is A Slow Car Crash

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since late February, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. While the Middle East supplies 20% of Europe’s aviation fuel, it’s not as if the continent will suddenly run out of jet fuel one day, Gradek told Forbes. “It’s going to be a slow process of individual countries starting to run out, which has already started.” Airlines worldwide cut roughly 13,000 flights and 2 million seats from their May 2026 schedules, with the biggest European reductions coming from Germany’s national airline Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, according to Cirium. Flight cuts are ramping up this summer. Looking ahead to June through September, roughly 9.3 million seats have already been removed across 11 major national markets, according to Cirium data shared with Forbes. And there is likely more schedule trimming to come. “Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, we don’t believe things will return to normalcy in the Mideast Gulf until at least August, and even that may be optimistic,” Smith told Forbes. “This is not about elasticity of price,” Gradek told Forbes. “This is about getting people home. This is about airlines delivering what they sold on your contracted ticket. Some airlines are going to have a hard time to fulfill that contracted obligation because air travel is going to be very difficult if we don’t have fuel.”

Europe’s Jet Fuel Shortage

“If you’re an American vacationing in Europe this summer, I can’t say that you would be risk free,” De Haan told Forbes, adding he was not worried about airlines cancelling profitable long-haul transatlantic flights. “Those would be the last flights to be adjusted. First, I’d worry about intra-Europe. I’d worry about small airport to small airport, medium to medium. Anything that touches a small airport could be canceled.” The United Kingdom, which “holds no strategic reserves” of jet fuel, is particularly at risk of jet fuel rationing as supplies fall to “critically low levels,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote to investors. “In Europe, the biggest problem is in the United Kingdom, since all its jet fuel is imported,” De Haan told Forbes. Last week, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer encouraged staycations in the U.K. and said citizens may have to “change where they go on holiday.”

The Jet Fuel Crisis Is Impacting The World

“Asia is getting a little challenging, but it’s spotty,” De Haan told Forbes. “Singapore should be okay, but Thailand could be more problematic. Bottom line is, a lot of the fuel is going to flow to the countries that can afford it the most—but a country like Thailand, maybe not so much.” What about other destinations around the world? “There’s going to be a decent amount of risk in going to Australia, to Africa, to South America,” De Haan said. “These are all areas that rely on imports in a significant way, so they’re all at elevated risk.”

What Can Travelers Expect In The U.s.?

“Airlines are right-sizing” for summer 2026, Mike Arnot, airline industry consultant at Cirium, told Forbes, noting he expects a very busy summer for transatlantic and U.S. domestic travel—but with higher airfares. Fuel costs are significantly higher than when airlines originally posted their summer schedules, he said. For June through September, United is reducing capacity by 8%, while Delta and American are trimming seats by 5% and 4%, respectively. And there are other pressures. “The U.S. dollar has also declined compared to the euro compared to a few summers ago and Spirit has completely exited the market,” Arnot said. The beleaguered ultra-low-cost carrier’s demise cut the supply of seats from the market, “which is going to result in higher fares, which is what U.S. airlines need to happen to cover their costs.” Once the Strait of Hormuz opens, it will take months for jet fuel prices to decline. “You’re looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down,” Chris Sununu, president of the airline lobby group Airlines for America, told The Wall Street Journal.

Tangent

Surging jet fuel prices wiped billions from U.S. airlines’ bottom lines in March and drove the final stake into Spirit Airlines.