What’s going on here?
Marriott Vacations Worldwide outpaced expectations last quarter, reporting a 29% surge in adjusted EBITDA to $203 million and doubling down on its 2025 outlook, even as sales rates eased a bit.
What does this mean?
Despite slightly softer sales numbers, Marriott Vacations delivered an impressive quarter. Adjusted earnings per share climbed to $1.96—easily topping analyst forecasts—and net income reached $69 million. The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, calling for contract sales between $1.74 and $1.83 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $750 to $780 million. Consolidated contract sales dipped less than 1% year-over-year, mostly because of lower spending per guest and a larger share of first-time buyers—a sign that the brand is reaching more new travelers. There was some weakness in its Interval International division, where revenue and EBITDA declined, suggesting some segment-specific headwinds. Still, six analysts rate the stock a buy, and the median 12-month price target is almost 20% above current levels. The price-to-earnings ratio has moved up from 8 to 10 in just three months, reflecting stronger investor optimism.
Why should I care?
For markets: Vacation optimism fuels travel stocks.
Investor sentiment around travel stocks is turning upbeat, with Marriott Vacations’ higher price-to-earnings ratio showcasing newfound confidence. Shares sit about 20% below the median analyst price target, suggesting room for growth if momentum holds up. Even as some sales numbers soften, operational resilience and customer growth are attracting positive attention from analysts and investors alike.
The bigger picture: Experience-driven travel stays in demand.
Marriott Vacations’ performance shines a light on changing travel habits—spending per guest is down, but new buyers are stepping up. While some segments like Interval International face challenges, macro demand for travel experiences remains solid. The company’s steady guidance and bullish analyst outlook suggest that branded vacation models are evolving with consumer trends and set up for stable growth.
