“Right now, this week as we speak, the outlook for the summer is not bad, especially with regard to the UK market. But around 50% of beds in Mallorca have yet to be booked and as nobody knows what is going to happen next in the Middle East or how our core market clients are thinking and feeling, we are living in very uncertain times,” he said.

Package holidays
He stressed that the uncertainty is particularly affecting the outbound sector with rising flight prices and holiday packages that threaten demand from the middle classes, the main target market for visitors. “There are so many factors at play here – even without this conflict the Balearics had, still has, a number of tourism policy issues to resolve looking to the future.

“But right now in the short term, the UK market is looking resilient. Going on holiday is a top priority for the British, always has been while the rest of Europe take a more relaxed approach. So based on past experience and the industry data and news we are receiving, the UK market is holding up. However, the UK has yet to introduce any fuel or energy price caps and controls like we have in Spain and fuel prices are hitting the airlines, so let’s wait and see.

“Perhaps our closer European neighbours live and breathe the situation a bit more like we do and that could be down to travel habits. The vast majority of Britons will have booked package holidays to Mallorca, the Balearics and other parts of Spain, so they are covered and protected and they know that.

“Plus deposits are paid in advance and then most of the holiday a month prior to departure. So based on those figures we have, there’s been no great fluctuation on last year so far. As things stand we’re looking at a season on par with last year. But Europeans, unless flying long haul, don’t do package holidays when coming to the Balearics, so that makes it much harder to gauge what they are planning.

“And we have to be very careful with what we wish for. Yes, the Balearics are a safe destination, but so are all the other destinations in the Western Med, the Caribbean and Americas, while there is still strong demand for Asia, especially the likes of Japan, so we can’t afford to sit back and presume that we’ll be a winning destination this year.

Massage the figures
“The winter season has not been great and with regard to early hotel openings, we need more clarity. Instead of the number of hotels being open, it’s more a matter of bed numbers. The bulk of the early openers are boutique hotels in Palma or rural establishments with very limited room numbers. And that’s one of the big problems, the tendency to massage the figures. Flights were down to Palma this Easter, at least 93 fewer than last year. So what does that tell? In the UK, if you don’t live in the southeast of England, it’s a nightmare to get a flight out to Mallorca during the low season, so all this talk of lengthening the season is for the birds.

“I recently crunched some numbers with my father, a former hotel director, and over the past 25 to 30 years all we’ve gained is an extra six weeks to the season – tops. So, even if we’ve had a good Easter, which is questionable, a tourist industry cannot survive on 15 days. We need to be full for the four key summer months. And I’m not talking mass tourism. This is where the government needs to wake up and get a proper grip of holiday rentals which are still a serious problem, much more so than all-inclusive hotels.

“On the one hand the government wants people to go out and spend more – that leads to more buses and traffic on the roads and gridlock, just let people relax and enjoy their hotels. Everyone will go out at some point to eat, drink or shop, but at the end of the day they are on holiday. If they want a bit of culture well great, but we shouldn’t forget what Mallorca tourism has been built on and continues to be based on whatever the politicians may think. Sun, sea and sand.

“When I go on holiday I know what I want. A good hotel with a good beach with easy access. I will eat and drink out and shop, but my primary concern is to relax, unless I am on a cultural break. I’m not going to get involved with the local politics, I will spend my money, help the local economy and enjoy myself and I think that goes for everyone who travels, especially people from the north of Europe coming south.

Identity crisis
“The trouble is the authorities are suffering an identity crisis. The Maldives do not turn up at trade fairs offering plates of fish. No, they highlight their best assets, so many of us in the industry don’t understand why the Balearic government has changed its promotional policy,” Pedro said. “Look, let’s put it this way. If you are trying to impress a potential new partner, a boy or girlfriend, what would you want to talk about and show off? Your best virtues while hiding anything potentially negative, the ‘turn offs’. Well that’s how the Balearics are now going about promotion and, despite all the talk, it’s not really working. They will not admit to it, they’ll just slap some make-up on the figures,” Pedro explained.

“In the high season, we have tried to diversify our offering so much that we have become too attractive a draw for too many people. What we need to do, rather than reduce numbers, is to weed out the wrong sort. We cannot have people coming here for stag or hen parties or for excessive partying. We are not promoting the island as it deserves.

Open all winter
“Hoteliers might jump down my throat for saying this, but the much-desired seasonality has only been achieved in Palma, which means tour operators are unwilling to take a chance on bringing tourists to completely deserted places. I remember some 30 years ago when hotels were not only open all winter but full of Britons avoiding the cold at home and the high energy bills. There were long-stay winter deals and packages. Where have they all gone and why?

“We need coordination between the local government and local councils, and incentives so that small businesses can stay afloat in winter. Furthermore, war or not, the Balearics still have serious competition. Yes, Turkey and Greece, for example, have taken a knock but not a hit and people are still booking. Portugal is very price competitive as is Morocco which is still holding up.

Price warning
“And talking about price, that is where Mallorca has got to tread very carefully. The hoteliers have put their prices up again, granted not as much as last year, but they’ve still increased them. So, with 50% of the beds which have not been locked in to contracts with tour operators still vacant, the hotel market could become very volatile with people looking at three to five star hotels.

“Even if this war ends tomorrow, the implications will be long lasting. People who had not booked before war broke out are now financially worse off and the hardest hit is always the middle class and that accounts for the bulk of Mallorca’s holiday market. So if they have not booked, price is going to be king this year, more so than ever and there will be some aggressive pricing as we move forward in the tourist industry across all destinations, and while clients will not want to get stung nor will the tour operators.

“If fuel prices continue to push airfares up and tour operators see a redirection of flow in travel, they may redirect flights to destinations which are working. Should a destination like Portugal decide to slash its prices and spark a price war, Mallorca will lose. With regard to pricing, Mallorca has lost a significant amount of competitiveness over recent years and with non-Euro countries now in the holiday destination mix, Mallorca and the Balearics in general would be the loser in a price war,” Pedro said.

Initially, the Balearics were seen as a safe “refuge destination”, boosting bookings at incoming agencies. However, Pedro describes this as “bread today, hunger tomorrow”, as a protracted conflict will impact household finances, reducing travel even within the region. We saw last year that the domestic market turned its back a bit on the Balearics and that was mainly due to pricing, so this year will be much of the same, while restaurants and bars complained of a sharp drop in business. That, unfortunately, could be even worse this year if people have less disposable income,” Pedro warned.

The new Manhattan
“Sadly, due to the failure to lengthen the season, the pressure remains on the key summer months. As a result, for the local tourist industry and all the supply chain to survive, we need the summer peaks. Until this issue is properly resolved, we will face the same battle every year. What the authorities need to have is a clear target of what clients they want.

“On the one hand they want Mallorca to become and be sold like the new Manhattan – a super luxury short-break destination for people only with unlimited credit cards. Well, it’s not going to happen and most people who live on the island, whatever their nationality, don’t want that. This is where the holiday rentals come into play. I’m a proud Mallorcan who, like the vast majority of people in the Balearics, live from tourism. But when I pop down to my local supermarket, I don’t want to spend half an hour or more shopping because a group of tourists who have rented a place for a week are doing the weekly shop.

“Pardon the pun, but it upsets the apple cart of daily life for local residents and that is why some sections of society are getting tired of the tourism policies we have. We need to have tourism which operates in harmony with the local community,” Pedro said. “The authorities have got confused. They neither have a clear objective nor know why the majority of tourists come to the Balearics. As a result they are having their identity crisis which is not helping any of us in the industry. What is wrong with letting people have fun in the sun? We need to get back to making sure that the tourist industry is friendly and that it doesn’t consider tourism as invasive,” he stressed.