Zagreb Airport is introducing a revised four-year Growth Incentive Model, marking a notable shift in its route development strategy compared to the previous scheme launched in 2021, and opening the door for competitors to challenge Ryanair’s dominance across a number of thin and secondary markets. While the earlier model was designed exclusively to stimulate the launch of entirely new routes, the updated framework expands its scope to also support so-called “thin routes” – services operated by a single airline without competition. The new incentive model comes into effect on June 1, with airlines eligible to apply until December 31. Ryanair was the only beneficiary of the previous scheme.
Under the original programme, carriers were required to generate at least 75.000 additional departing passengers annually to qualify for incentives, with further benefits tied to higher growth thresholds. In contrast, the new model significantly lowers the entry barrier, requiring a minimum of 35.000 passengers per year. This change is expected to make the scheme more accessible, particularly for smaller markets and airlines considering lower-volume routes.
The incentive structure has also been simplified. Previously, benefits were calculated on incremental growth, with a tiered system that included an initial 80% discount on passenger service charges and smaller additional reductions at higher thresholds. The new model retains the 80% discount but applies it to all departing passengers on eligible routes, offering airlines a more predictable and financially attractive framework. In addition, participating carriers are exempt from certain infrastructure charges.
Another key difference lies in the programme’s duration and flexibility. The earlier model ran over a five-year period, whereas the new scheme is limited to four years but introduces mechanisms that reward stronger early performance. Airlines exceeding 100.000 or 150.000 passengers in the initial years can secure continued incentives without needing to meet annual thresholds.
Under the new Growth Incentive Model, Zagreb Airport excludes a defined list of destinations from eligibility. These are considered either sufficiently developed or strategically not targeted under the scheme. Notably, they are primarily routes not served by Ryanair. Within Europe, they include Athens, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Helsinki, Istanbul IST, Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen, Kyiv, Lisbon, London Heathrow, Madrid, Milan Malpensa, Moscow Sheremetyevo, Munich, Oslo, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Prague, Stockholm Arlanda, St. Petersburg, Stuttgart, Vienna, Warsaw and Zurich. Regionally, it includes all domestic destinations, as well as Belgrade, Sarajevo, Skopje and Tirana. Longer routes excluded from the scheme are Doha, Dubai, Seoul Incheon, Tel Aviv and Toronto. In practice, the airport is now targeting secondary or underserved European cities, niche leisure markets and new point-to-point opportunities outside core trunk routes.
