SINGAPORE – Airline passengers in Asia are in for a turbulent summer travel season as sky-high jet fuel prices and tightening supply have forced many carriers here to cut flights and raise surcharges.

With the price of jet fuel doubling since the war in the Middle East began on Feb 28, the consensus among analysts is that airlines in the region, especially low-cost carriers, simply cannot afford to fly as frequently the longer the conflict drags on.

However, views are mixed over whether Asia faces a similar physical supply crunch as in Europe, where alarm bells have been ringing over the possibility of jet fuel running out within weeks.

According to research by Bangkok-based Kasikorn Research Centre, more than 150,000 of the 5.3 million global flights scheduled between March and June have already been cut amid the Middle East crisis, which has led to a virtual halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for global fuel shipments.

As the war goes on, more flight cuts are a given, said aviation analyst Shukor Yusof of Endau Analytics, noting that some Asian airlines are bleeding millions of dollars daily.

Fewer flights also mean poorer air connectivity, analysts told The Straits Times.

“Whilst the focus in the news has been on higher fares, consumers need to be wary of a deterioration in reliability and journey quality,” said Mr Gee Lefevre, Global Head of Consumer and Economics at advisory firm Teneo.

An April analysis by aviation data firm Cirium of the changes made to flight schedules for the month of May by the world’s 100 largest airlines showed that 11 out of the 20 carriers that made the largest cuts are based in Asia.

VietJet was third on Cirium’s list behind Middle Eastern carriers Qatar Airways and Etihad as the Vietnamese low-cost carrier slashed its May schedule by almost 20 percentage points.

Sichuan Airlines, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysia Airlines, Xiamen Airlines and three carriers under the AirAsia Group made cuts of 10 to 15 percentage points.

In the week since the analysis was published on April 16, airlines in Asia have continued to prune their summer schedules, doing away with excess frequencies and low-yielding routes, though some like Indonesia’s Transnusa have not had to make any cancellations yet.

As an example, AirAsia Group, which analysts flagged as being especially vulnerable, pared down its regional network, dropping routes such as Bangkok-Singapore and Jakarta-Kota Kinabalu entirely, with some of the flight cuts set to last until late October.

Alton Aviation Consultancy director Alan Lim said the flight reductions in the region so far are concentrated in two areas – routes to the Middle East directly affected by the war and short-haul routes to secondary cities within Asia.

“These capacity cuts are likely to extend beyond the May and June period,” he said.

Mr Mayur Patel, Asia-Pacific commercial and industry affairs leader at data provider OAG Aviation, said South-east Asian airlines as a whole have made the most significant contractions in the region on a year-on-year basis.

In comparison, Indian carriers, and those from Japan and South Korea, have collectively made smaller cuts, while Chinese carriers are mounting more flights in May compared with a year ago.

Over the next six months, thousands of flights have been added between China and Europe as Chinese airlines look to pick up demand spilling over from the disruptions at Middle Eastern transit hubs.

However, with rising jet fuel prices, Chinese carriers have reduced operations to South-east Asia and Oceania in the short term, upending the travel plans of Chinese holidaymakers ahead of an upcoming five-day Labour Day break.

Travellers in Asia will also need to brace for high airfares as jet fuel prices are expected to stay elevated even after the war is over, with supply expected to take months to normalise.

Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways have said they will double fuel surcharges for their international flights on May 1, while South Korean carriers have raised fuel surcharges for May to the highest level in the country’s history.

Ms June Goh, senior oil market analyst at data firm Sparta Commodities, said: “The era of cheap airfares will soon come to an end and we have to budget for more expensive holidays for at least the next six months.”

Jet fuel supply has been hit hard by the Strait of Hormuz closure because, unlike petrol or diesel, it requires specialised storage so little is kept in reserve.

Jet fuel is also uniquely vulnerable because there are only a handful of key regional suppliers, which means there are few immediate alternatives when shipments are restricted, said Mr Wang Zhuwei, director of oil trading research at energy data provider S&P Global Energy.

In Asia, jet fuel is produced by a few countries like Singapore from crude oil that comes largely from the Middle East. Other leading producers in the region are South Korea, China and India.

With Hormuz closed, these refiners cannot make as much jet fuel as before.

The situation was compounded when South Korea and China prioritised domestic use after the war broke out, causing shortfalls in importing countries like Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan.

Mr Wang estimates the constraints on Korean and Chinese exports removed 1.3 million metric tons of monthly jet fuel supply from the regional market, or about 10 per cent of total demand.

India, which exported 8.55 million metric tons of aviation fuel in the 2025 financial year, has also turned inward, imposing a new export duty on jet fuel in March that rose to 42 rupees (S$0.57) per litre in April. Separately, to control a rise in airfares, ​it has capped the monthly increase in aviation fuel ⁠prices for domestic airlines at 25 per cent.

Analysts told ST the impact of the jet fuel crunch in Asia varies from country to country. China, South Korea, Japan and Singapore are the most secure, while Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh – which lack refining capacity – are among the most vulnerable.

Ms Goh of Sparta Commodities said the fact that some countries like Vietnam and the Philippines cancelled flights early on implies the jet fuel shortage is already here. But she said supply is “not falling off the cliff” thanks in part to these interventions.

Mr Shukor said Vietnam, South Korea, Japan and even crude producers like Indonesia are sourcing jet fuel from the United States to be shipped across the Pacific Ocean.

But he noted that currency weakness compared with the US dollar has put some carriers like those in Indonesia and Malaysia at a disadvantage.

S&P Global’s Mr Wang said he foresees acute jet fuel tightness in Asia that is broadly comparable to Europe, “and in the very near term, arguably sharper”.

This is because Asia is more dependent on Middle Eastern crude and it was hit by abrupt supply losses, such as China’s jet fuel export ban, that Europe did not face to the same degree, he added.

However, analysts said the trajectory for Asia is not the same as Europe, which relies heavily on jet fuel imports. “Asia’s tightness could ease sooner if short-term disruptions fade,” said Mr Wang, noting that Singapore’s higher jet fuel inventories provide a regional buffer.

According to public information, the amount of jet fuel each country in Asia holds in reserve is not uniform.

Australia maintains 30 days of reserves, which the government says have not been touched. New Zealand had 47 days of cover as on April 19.

India has adequate supply for 60 days without any interruption, said its civil aviation minister in March. Indonesia was said to have 38 days of stock in mid-March, with state energy giant Pertamina recently securing fuel to support Hajj flights through June.

Malaysia’s Petronas also has sufficient stockpiles until June and it is procuring more. Airlines in the Philippines say they have enough to last through June as well.

The picture is less clear in places like China and Singapore, where exact stockpile figures are not disclosed.

However, Singapore-based China Aviation Oil, which supplies imported jet fuel to key international airports in China, said on April 20 that the impact on operations in its core China market remains limited.

Vietnam, which imports more than two-thirds of its jet fuel needs, has said it is at risk of a shortage. With 60 per cent of its jet fuel coming from China and Thailand, the country has called on Beijing to maintain stable supplies for its airlines.

OAG’s Mr Patel said governments in Asia should establish a coordinated regional fuel reserve sharing framework to navigate the current shock.

Meanwhile, travellers should book refundable fares with travel insurance, budget for fuel surcharges of US$200 (S$255.55) to US$400 on long-haul round trips, and consider purchasing tickets for travel in late 2026 and early 2027 in advance, he added.